What Price the NHS?

Queen’s House Consulting announces publication of its discussion paper “What Price the NHS?“. This independent report coordinates data about the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS) pay and funding, alongside population change, inflation and government revenues since 2010. This is presented in the context of an ongoing pay dispute between NHS staff trade unions and the UK Government.

Analysis indicates that NHS staff pay has not matched inflation since 2010. In contrast, private sector pay has increased by more than inflation since 2010. Overall, total NHS spending has approximately matched inflation over the same period, if the exceptional costs of the COVID-19 pandemic are discounted. However, this has not taken account of population growth since 2010, or the disproportionate increase in the people over 65 years old who have greater need for NHS services.

The currently-disputed pay offer provides an average 4% salary increase, which is less than the 7.0% annual inflation to March 2022. The incremental cost of this pay offer in England would be up to £2.8bn, or 7.3% of the NHS pay budget. This offer would add 1.8% to the total NHS budget.

The discussion paper proposes three different models for NHS pay, which may offer options for settlement of the current dispute. Model 1 provides a pay increase based on the annual inflation rate in the preceding year. Model 2 provides a pay increase which corrects the gap between salary in each pay band and the cumulative inflation since 2010. Model 3 provides a pay increase which delivers parity with the growth in private sector pay since 2010. In England, the incremental costs of these models are up to £3.8bn, £6.5bn and £12.3bn. They would add 9.8%, 16.9% and 31.8% to NHS pay costs, representing an increase of 2.5%, 4.3%, and 8.1% of the total NHS budget respectively.

The cost of additional funding to provide for demographic changes since 2010 has also been calculated. Applied to pay models 1-3, these costs in England are £17.6bn-£18.7bn, which is approximately 11.7%-12.5% of the total NHS budget.

To build additional resilience into the NHS, the cost of an extra 10% capacity has been calculated. This would allow normal service delivery during times of high demand, with the opportunity for service improvement at other times. Applied to pay models 1-3, these incremental costs are estimated to be £16.1bn-£17.1bn, which is approximately 10.8%-11.4% of the total NHS budget.

Although the demographic and capacity investment are not directly associated with pay, they offers a potential reduction of staff workload. Along with pay, that outcome may facilitate staff recruitment and retention, to benefit both staff and patients.

Collective implementation of such pay models, demographic adjustment and capacity improvement would raise the UK from 16th to 5th ranking in a global comparison of national healthcare expenditure. Together, they would cost £27.4bn-£38.6bn, adding 18.3%-25.8% to the NHS budget in England. Extrapolating this to the whole UK would cost £32.7bn-£47.0bn. This would increase healthcare spending as a proportion of personal taxation from 26.0% to between 30.8% and 32.8%. As a proportion of total government income, these combined options would increase healthcare spending from 14.2%-15.1% to between 17.9% and 19.1%.

These models identify the cost and value of different investments in healthcare. It may be timely to consider what level of healthcare service the UK wants and how much of the national wealth should be committed to deliver it.

The discussion paper analyses the problems and offers solutions for consideration by stakeholders. This approach is in line with the broader offering from Queen’s House Consulting.

Click here to read the full report.

Queen’s House Consulting at Pharma Integrates 2022

Queen’s House Consulting is pleased to be a sponsor of Pharma Integrates 2022, which brings together pharma and healthcare leaders from around the UK and beyond. Promoting discussion and collaboration on parallel tracks, the meeting considers future demands for pharmaceutical healthcare.

We are also showcasing Queen’s House Consulting services as one of the exhibitors, welcoming delegates to discuss how we can support their needs.

New UK Life Sciences Vision

The UK government has announced their new UK Life Sciences Vision which lays out decade-long plans to solve targeted major healthcare problems, such as cancer and dementia. The new Vision, which was published on Wednesday 7th July, builds on the rapid response to the COVID-19 pandemic across the life science sector. It aims to combine government, industry, the NHS, academia and research charities to solve 7 critical healthcare “missions” by accelerating the development and implementation of new drugs, diagnostics, medical technology and digital tools. These missions will focus on preventing, diagnosing, monitoring and treating diseases earlier and will seek to enhance the efficiency of clinical trials.

The 7 missions focus on:

  • Dementia treatment
  • Early diagnosis and treatments 
  • Vaccine discovery, development and manufacturing.
  • Treatment/prevention of cardiovascular disease and contributory risk factors
  • Reducing mortality/morbidity from respiratory disease
  • Biology of ageing
  • Definition, understanding and management of impaired mental health

The Vision aims to recreate the successes of the UK Vaccines Taskforce by removing unnecessary administration and engaging with private sector expertise. It is intended that the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) will be influential in supporting the timely availability of safe drugs and technologies.

To provide financial support for these missions, the UK government has launched its Life Sciences Investment Programme, which will invest £200 million into the life sciences industry via the British Patient Capital division of the British Business Bank. A further £800 million will be provided by an agreement with the UAE’s Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Investment Company which will also be delivered by British Patient Capital to support identified funds and sectors.

Steve Bates OBE, Chief Executive of the BioIndustry Association (of which Queen’s House Consulting is a member), has welcomed this initiative, saying:

I am pleased that the Vision identifies 4 preconditions for success which must be met over the next decade, giving industry and government clear goals. Working together, we must simplify the governance and oversight of NHS health data, make the NHS an Innovation Partner, increase UK R&D spend and broaden UK access to finance to scale at pace to deliver this rightly ambitious vision.

Queen’s House Consulting can offer support to this Vision, providing specialist services which enhance and augment the UK’s life sciences expertise from laboratory to licensing. Please contact us to discuss your particular needs.

2020: the year of e-medicine?

It is possible that social historians will look back on 2020 as the year when e-medicine came of age. In countries with well-established healthcare services, internet cables hummed the louder as the COVID-19 drawbridge was raised in surgeries, clinics, hospitals and care homes. Indeed, future generations may shake their heads in disbelief that as soon as people got ill, whether infectious or not, they congregated in close proximity to other ill people in order to seek treatment. Our own pride in eradicating the horrors of the isolation hospital may seem misplaced to our children’s children.

However, although remote diagnosis and treatment have become the norm, we should guard against a new complacency based on the internet, microprocessors and 5G-communications. They can be as severely affected by virus infection (adventitious or malign) as any human being. In the rush to embrace technology, there should be a back-up “plan B” to cope when the cables break, the electricity supply fails, or a mistaken coding loop cannot be remedied by switching off and switching back on again. Maybe thoughts on Plan B will be the basis for a future post.

There is also the human-machine interface, beloved by acronymists as HMI. In conjunction with the demands of data protection, e-medicine has not yet resolved the most obvious challenge of the real-world clinic – most medical appointments are made by the elderly. No matter how computer-literate older people have become as their aging has tracked the internet age, the combined effects of gradual physical, sensory and cognitive impairment are ultimately not compatible with the operation of current technology.

Although it is convenient for both healthcare professional and active patient to  deliver primary community healthcare by newly-adopted technology, that benefit falls away as the gap in technical ability widens between the youthful provider and the aging patient. Even if the technology is left predominantly in the hands of the provider by continuing to offer face-to-face consultations, it cannot be utilised if the patient cannot manipulate the technology for booking an appointment in the first place.

Recognising that effective communication is as important for the development and delivery of healthcare as the science and technology that underpins it, Queen’s House Consulting suggests the following provocative eight-point prompt for developers to simulate the experience of less-able users when designing and testing e-medicine systems:

  • Try locating the device “on” switch on a rotating wheel somewhere inside the device, operated by finger proximity alone
  • Try using a keyboard/touchscreen interface with blurred letters/numbers
  • Try wearing thick, rigid gardening gloves while using the software
  • Try controlling access with 100-digit passwords which must be memorised
  • Try using instructions (written or audio) translated into a foreign language
  • Try waiting 60 seconds between each required input
  • Try running the sequence of tasks in random order
  • Try entering information which is not offered as an option

Sometimes the developer is so attuned to their product that it is difficult to see it through the eyes of a novice. Queen’s House Consulting can offer an independent assessment to maximise the ease of use in real-world situations. If you are a developer and would like to explore such a service, please contact Queen’s House Consulting to discuss your particular needs.

Medical Innovations April 2018

Queen’s House Consulting was among the delegates at the Royal Society of Medicine 16th Medical Innovations Summit. Covering four general themes, presenters from around the world presented their novel approaches to problems of mental health, issues around the delivery of healthcare, new treatments for disease, and the potential of digital medicine.

Approaches to Mental Health:

While news reports are highlighting the dangers of social media, the Summit heard about two schemes aimed at young people. “MeeTwo” is a peer-oriented, moderated app which allows the posting of problems, concerns and anxieties. It allows users to share solutions and reassurance that they are not alone in their experiences, while also offering links to relevant information, other support groups and expert help.

Moving to the physical world, new procedures have been developed in primary and secondary schools which could reduce exclusions and referrals to mental health services. Adopting a holistic approach to the problems, the system embeds fully-funded and trained pastoral support staff within the school, to work with teaching staff, students and parents/carers. Although the approach is adaptable to different circumstances of age, affluence, education and environment, the benefits of full-time staff appears to offer benefits to everyone and reduce the burden on outside social/health services.

A novel therapeutic approach for some mental health problems was presented, which uses virtual reality to reproduce anxiety-inducing situations in a safe environment. It appears that repeated exposure to the cause of anxiety may induce tolerance and coping strategies which improved the patient’s quality of life.

These presentations prompted discussion about the sustainability of provision; if positive outcomes reflect long term efficacy then these approaches will be sustainable (subject to maintained funding); however, if continued intervention is needed to maintain the outcome then demand will rapidly exceed the capacity to deliver and the programmes will become unsustainable.

Healthcare Delivery

A chance family event prompted the design of an interactive cup to promote hydration of people in hospital or nursing care. The Droplet® device combines a machine-washable mug or beaker with a digital base which can alert user and carer about the frequency, quantity and need to drink. An anti-spill lid without a humiliating “baby” spout completes the design. It is more expensive than an ordinary mug, but probably not if the secondary cost of dehydration (confusion, organ failure, hospitalisation and recovery time) is included in the calculation.

Parental experience of paediatric oncology services prompted a digital innovator to create an app which accompanies children through the bewildering and frightening experience of cancer treatment. The interactive app, which is still in development, uses virtual reality inform and prepare the child, who remains in control by “pulling” information at the level and rate they can cope with, rather than having information “pushed” upon them regardless of their emotional and cognitive state. It also allows physically-restricted and sometimes lonely patients to play virtual-reality games with other children. Presumably there is a significant cost in developing and maintaining such a platform, which would be ripe for charitable investment so that no child with a mobile device need want for such 24/7 virtual support.

On a different business level, the potential benefits of social finance to fund preventative medicine and healthcare compliance was described. The money comes from investors, rather than insurers or national bodies, who fund treatments or prevention programmes while receiving a dividend calculated from the resulting lifetime healthcare savings. The first medical model for such a system is the treatment and prevention of diabetes, where investing in the promotion of healthy lifestyle can reduce the incidence of type 2 disease and the long-term treatment costs for primary and secondary healthcare needs.

Finally, there was discussion about the Access to Medical Treatment (Medical Innovation) Act which could change the basis for new drug availability and clinical trial enrolment. There was a healthy debate about the possible benefits for some patients and the potential to undermine scientifically-based demonstration of efficacy.

A common strand through these presentations was the assumption that funds would flow to the product on the promise of larger healthcare savings in the future. It is not clear whether any cash-strapped provider can afford to make that leap of imagination. The schemes have an implicit expectation that future savings will then be available for re-investment in other healthcare needs; however, the temptation merely to pocket the savings will be strong in any cost-conscious healthcare organisations. Furthermore, the business model should not combine savings based on costs in developed healthcare systems with maximum growth in countries with limited healthcare provision.

New Treatments

The Summit showcased three new pharmaceutical developments which address the challenges of immunisation, genetic disease and treatment compliance/efficacy.

Pathogen mutation which confounds vaccine efficacy may be overcome by the development of vaccine-vector combinations. These can recognise and disrupt the less-mutable internal molecules, rather than raising antibodies against surface antigens which evolve to evade recognition. By overcoming the natural mutation of the pathogen, this technology offers long-term protection against, e.g., influenza, avoiding the need for regular re-immunisation. As well as most stable long-term pathogen recognition, the new approach delivers pathogen-destroying agents, in contrast to conventional vaccines which rely upon the host’s natural defence and elimination pathways. This ability to recognise and destroy internal structures within cells and pathogens also promises improved targeting of cancer cells.

The progress in gene therapy was also discussed, with a growing number of gene therapy clinical trials. The challenges of validating safety and efficacy in a new branch of medicine are great, even though the limited patient numbers seem to indicate long-term correction of the defective gene expression and disease phenotype. The challenge is to determine the need (if any) for repeat dosing with the viral vector and the long-term monitoring for delayed adverse effects. In a commercial world, the high development cost and potentially one-time treatment of a life-long morbidity are not easy to monetarise. Outside the sphere of experimental medicine, such therapies will probably require deep pockets, lease-for-life contracts, or both.

The final area for consideration was the use of intelligent drugs containing a sensor which reports information such as patient compliance, drug function and other physiological response. If used in the formulation of an antipsychotic drug, where patient non-compliance can lead to a spiral of decline, it was suggested that the additional information could inform and justify future clinical treatment decisions. Delegates at the Summit were exercised by ethical, financial and technical concerns around this development. Again, the business model seemed reliant on revenues from grateful healthcare funders whose future costs of poor compliance/efficacy would be avoided.

Potential for Digital Medicine

Finally, the use of technology to improve access and delivery of healthcare was described by three different approaches.

For developing nations, where disperse populations cannot always verify their identity, peripatetic healthcare professionals can use digital fingerprint recognition to confirm the correct medical history of an individual on their mobile device. This device is climatically and physically robust in the poorest parts of the world, even without reliable electric power or internet.

In a different digital field, computer networks are being used to gather, collate, analyse and feedback data on healthcare staff well-being, motivation and delivery, as well as being a scaffold to progress and promote ground-up improvement programmes. It will be interesting to see if the reported benefits over the early months of the scheme within an NHS Foundation Trust can be sustained by both staff and management. In the non-digital world the initial enthusiasm of such scheme’s early-adopters is defeated by: creeping cynicism; realisation that second-wave improvements are more complex than the high-profile initial “quick wins”; and distraction as newer, glossier or urgent distractions emerge. If the digital systems can buck this trend, they would be transformative.

At the very sharp end of healthcare provision is the monitoring and diagnostic power of artificial intelligence (AI) such as the Google DeepMind programme. Such systems can gather and analyse immense amounts of information and retrieve it very quickly. The challenge, which was discussed by the audience, is the weight and credibility given to the AI output, compared to the judgement of the human physician. This becomes particularly relevant when the AI reports unique events which are not detected by the human physician. If the subsequent AI-generated treatment plan is different to the physician’s diagnosis, will the human being be confident (and legally protected) in following their own judgement rather than that of the AI? Conversely, is the human being liable for implementing an unsuccessful AI-generated treatment?

Queen’s House Consulting

Queen’s House Consulting does not claim answers to all the issues raised by this Summit, but can offer strategies which navigate the process/product development cycle from concept to patient. Please contact Queen’s House Consulting to discuss your particular needs.

 




Medical Innovations Summit

Medical, healthcare and pharmaceutical speakers from around the world have presented their work at the Royal Society of Medicine 2017 Medical Innovations Summit. The meeting considered developments in mental health provision, diagnostic methods and the handling of Big Data, and targeted biotechnology .  Key messages were:

Mental Healthcare Provision:

What happens when family and carers are kept away from patients needing hospital and nursing care? The negative effects of isolation and insufficient staffing resource can result in chronic and sometimes terminal decline in the patient’s welfare. A programme of open access, positive encouragement and partnership between healthcare professionals and family/carers can result in improved clinical outcomes and quality of life. More and more healthcare providers are signing up to the “John’s Campaign” initiative.

To counter the isolation of a society fragmented by age, particularly among older people, a number of mixed-age experiences are being developed: locating nursery schools in homes for the elderly, with integrated activities for both age groups; allocating accommodation for young people in retirement/assisted living housing developments in return for help and social interaction; and specific projects in local student communities whereby the skills of the young are offered to help the less-able elderly.

 

Diagnostic Methods

New apps are being developed and used to provide doctors and patients with more information to optimise treatment. One such allows the patient’s individual condition to be matched with clinical trials for which they are particularly eligible. This can avoid uncertainty about whether a particular trial is appropriate for a particular patient, narrowing the bewildering number of trials which may be suitable. It also helps the trial sponsor to avoid wasteful effort in identifying study subjects who subsequently do not meet trial’s entry criteria.

Another app provides physicians with a guide through the symptoms to identify compatible diagnosis. This can alert the health professional to broader diagnosis and eliminate the most unlikely diagnoses.

In countries where doctors have to serve patients who live over large geographical area, a digital stethoscope and thermometer have been developed. This allows patients to collect the data for analysis and diagnosis by their physician who may be a long way away. It is then possible to conduct a remote consultation with the most essential information available to the doctor. The company are now looking to extend the data available by adding scales, blood pressure monitor and pulse oximeter to the app package.

Another award-winning idea is the use of an easy-to-wear vest which monitors heart rate and body temperature as a predictive alarm of epileptic seizure. Without advance notice, seizures can be highly disruptive and place the patient at risk from secondary injury. This is particularly true for young children, who are less able to identify the changes which occur just before a seizure occurs. The vest provides an unobtrusive device for holding the monitors in place, without the social stigma or discomfort of more visible technology.

The opportunity to use augmented reality can support less experienced surgeons to conduct complex procedures under the guidance of remote consultant surgeons. Not only does this provide audio advice, but it can also overlay the consultant’s hand and devices on a screen image of the surgical field, with very high precision. Further developments are promised, including 3D-imaging which would provide even greater support for complex internal surgery.

As an aid to cardiac surgery, a code has been developed whereby the wire fixings used to join the sternum after coronary by-pass surgery can be used to leave an X-ray visible code inside the chest which identifies the location of the implanted vascular shunts. This can save time and uncertainty if the patient presents on a later date with a suspected blockage; if there is no access to their surgical history, life-threatening time can be lost trying to locate the blockage  during emergency corrective surgery. The direction of the wires (up or down, left or right) and the number of wires will show up on X-ray and identify the location and number of by-passes previously performed.

Another development for improved surgical outcomes is a programme of active intervention to prepare patients for surgery. In many cases, the underlying condition, and/or the prior medication, can leave a patient in sub-optimal physical and psychological condition for the rigours of surgery and post-operative recovery. By applying a holistic approach in the pre-operative period, which optimises diet and nutrition, physical fitness and psychological well-being, the patient is better prepared for surgery. Experience of the programme to date indicates that the post-operative recovery period is shorter and the patient’s confidence and attitude is greatly improved. This initial work has been done with cancer patients, but may be equally applicable to many or all forms of major surgery.

Biotechnology

The summit heard about two biotechnology advances which could change the shape of medicine in the future. The development of biotechnology to target therapies in oncology and immunology diseases will be a first for a Chinese biotech company, both in meeting the needs of the large Chinese population and in providing therapeutic drugs outside China for the first time.

In Scotland, a company has addressed the evolutionary success of sharks, to adapt and humanise shark antibodies for the treatment of inflammatory disease. The first targets for these therapeutic molecules are as treatments of inflammatory eye and gut diseases.

Queen’s House Consulting

Queen’s House Consulting was among delegates at the Medical Innovations Summit. Offering expertise in system process analysis, technical “health-check” for start-ups and investors, and programming/troubleshooting biotech product development from laboratory bench to market, Queen’s House Consulting is able to support medical innovation. If you would like to discuss your particular pharmaceutical/healthcare needs, please contact Queen’s House Consulting.

 

 

 




Talk NHS

Queen’s House Consulting joined Talk NHS, a public debate on the past, present and future of the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom. This one day meeting, organised jointly by the Royal Society of Medicine and Discourse, was led by expert panels representing healthcare practitioners, lawyers, patients, politicians and think-tanks. The meeting ended with a keynote lecture by Professor Stephen Hawking who described his personal experience, in support of a publicly-funded health service which is free at the point of use. Before this, the panels and audience had spent the day in lively discussion, considering the economic basis, political control, funding, structures and accountability of the NHS, which is organised differently in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. There was also debate about the impact of these elements on the recruitment, retention, motivation and professional support for NHS staff. It was recognised that incorporation of enhanced preventative medicine (in its broadest terms) and social care into the mainstream scope of the NHS could offset the growth in demand for NHS services. The meeting was characterised by a considerable agreement about the past and present state of the NHS, but greater variety of opinion about its future. This may reflect the focus and diverse interests of the audience and panel members.

 

As an independent pharmaceutical and healthcare advisor, Queen’s House Consulting can distinguish between the long-term strategic development of the NHS, and the short- to mid-term tactics needed to deliver health and social care within defined budgets.  With experience in analysis, long-term planning and short-term implementation, Queen’s House Consulting can help NHS practitioners, managers, civil servants and politicians develop the structures needed for each. At the core, is the existing expertise of professionals in these areas, along with the expectations and needs of the patients/clients of NHS services. Queen’s House Consulting can work alongside these NHS stakeholders, offering additional time and skills without diverting these professionals from their daily provision of healthcare. Recognising the perception that external consultants can be a financial drain on limited public finances, Queen’s House Consulting offers competitive, transparent and cost-effective options for its services. Click here for more information about the relevant services offered by Queen’s House Consulting, or contact us to discuss your particular needs.